Friday Recap (12/5/2025)

AU: $4203 ($4217 - Last Week) - - (Jan 1st $2623 = +60% YTD)
AG: $58.31 (56.33) - - (Jan 1st $28.97 = +101% YTD)
HUI: 661 (677) - - (Jan 1st 289 = +128% YTD)
DXY: 98.9 (99.4)
S&P: 6866 (6849) - - (Jan 1st 5881 = +17% YTD)
10-Yr: 4.14% (4.01%)
Oil: 60 (58)

We had a quiet week. The S&P was up a few points and held 6800. As I have said, the S&P 500 is the most important chart for gold. Wherever it trends in the near term, gold will follow. I’m expecting the S&P to crash soon, so that creates a huge headwind for gold. I think this is why gold is nearly $200 from its ATH. Gold is front-running the crash on the S&P, as is Bitcoin. The miners also seem to be a bit jittery, down for the week, although that could be tax-loss selling.

The one bright spot is silver, which has benefited from inventory issues at the LBMA, Shanghai Exchange, and COMEX. Silver deliveries have been well above normal in 2025, and that trend is likely to continue. This supports Michael Oliver’s call that silver is about to rip higher, perhaps to $100 in Q1. While silver looks very strong, I doubt $50 will hold for the next cycle low, when the selling begins on the S&P. My cycle low targets remain $3600 for gold (-14%), $44 for silver (-20%), and 500 for the HUI (-25%). While those targets do seem very low, I don’t expect them to be reached unless gold gets pounded down to $3600.

Can silver break out on its own? Anything is possible, but it’s unlikely. Can the S&P get above 7000 and pull gold/silver/miners with it? Sure, but not likely. Nearly everyone thinks the S&P will either remain above 6800 or go higher by year-end. I have my doubts. I expected some volatility in December, and I still do.

What everyone seems to be ignoring is NVIDIA, which has a problem. NVIDIA (and the AI trade) has been the engine of the S&P for the last three years. NVIDIA has been a rocket ship, with its mkt cap rising from $300B to $4.3B since 2021. I think it has topped out. It now has five competitors that are stealing market share. NVIDIA’s growth is threatened, and without growth its market cap valuation is threatened. If its share price can’t hold $185, it will likely drop to $150 very quickly (for technical reasons). That could easily mark the end of NVIDIA’s run and spark a sell-off. While the S&P is gold’s most important chart, NVIDIA is the S&P’s most important chart, and everyone is pretending that it isn’t.