Friday Recap (11/8/2025)

AU: $3999 ($4001 - Last Week) - - (Jan 1st $2623 = 52% YTD)
AG: $48.17 (48.60) - - (Jan 1st $28.97 = 66% YTD)
HUI: 572 (580) - - (Jan 1st 289 = 98% YTD)
DXY: 99.5 (99.7)
S&P: 6728 (6887) - - (Jan 1st 5881 = 14% YTD)
10-Yr: 4.01% (4.01%)
Oil: $60 (61)

Everything (data above) spun in place this week except the S&P 500, which fell. In fact, Gareth Soloway made a YouTube video on Thursday and called the top in the stock market because of the PA (price action) in the technology stocks. If he is right, we will know by the end of the month. I think he might be right for several reasons. First, his TA (technical analysis) charts look compelling. Second, the slowdown in the economy is becoming more obvious.

I don’t know when the stock market is going to crash, but we seem to be getting close. I’m hoping gold and silver can rally before the crash, but that might not occur. If it doesn’t, then $3700 gold and $42-$43 silver will be in play soon. Be prepared to buy the next dip. The next 8-12 weeks look dicey.

The government will likely reopen soon, which should push the S&P 500 up for a short burst, but I don’t think it will last very long. It seems like the bad news in the economy is beginning to overwhelm the AI trade. The charts for many consumer-oriented stocks have been crashing. The University of Michigan consumer confidence sentiment is down to 50 (90 is normal in a growing economy), which is clearly a bad omen. You don’t go that low and not get a recession.

The economy has been weakening since COVID in 2020, and you could make an argument that the economy never recovered from the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) in 2008. The consumer is battered by recent inflation, and the bottom 50% of consumers are not recovering. It’s just getting worse, and the housing bubble and tariffs are just making it worse. There is no way out of this mess. Wall Street is betting on the AI trade and lower interest rates, but I think they are begging. Expect the S&P 500 to end the year negative (below 5881) and set the tone for 2026 and the incoming recession.