Friday Recap (11/28/2025)

AU: $4217 ($4055 - Last Week) - - (Jan 1st $2623 = +60% YTD)
AG: $56.33 (49.70) - - (Jan 1st $28.97 = +94% YTD)
HUI: 677 (594) - - (Jan 1st 289 = +134% YTD)
DXY: 99.4 (100.1)
S&P: 6849 (6602) - - (Jan 1st 5881 = +16% YTD)
10-Yr: 4.01% (4.06%)
Oil: $58 (57)

Today is the end of the month for the markets. Monday is December 1st. November was volatile, but gold came out the winner once again. It is now up 60% for the year. You can say that silver is the winner, up 94% for the year, or the miners with the HUI up 134%. However, gold is the big dog. Silver and the miners are just tagging along. The asset that is wagging the dog is gold, and that is going to continue.

Ironically, while gold is leading, it is actually down $164 from its ATH. But that is just noise, as it rebounds from its recent 12% correction. Gold is going higher. Guess what isn’t? The S&P 500. It’s toast and is the pretender. Gold is telling the truth. NVIDIA is what caused all of the volatility in November, and its chart is ugly. NVIDIA had a temporary stranglehold on AI chips, watching its market cap explode from $300B in 2021 to $4.3T today, an insane explosion in value. Now it has competition from PPUs (Alibaba, Huawei, and AMD) and TPUs (Google). It’s going to crash and bring down the stock market with it. I think NVIDIA is the trigger (perhaps as soon as December).

The most impactful chart for gold and silver remains the S&P 500. Until it stops rising, they are both trapped. Many think silver is going to break out here and fly higher. It’s possible, but I think the S&P will head lower and drag it down. In November, the S&P remained strong, allowing gold and silver to play catch-up once again. Since March 2024, gold has rebounded on any correction and followed the S&P higher. That correlation has remained intact. But the downward correlation is also in play. I don’t think we will get a decoupling from those correlations until they both drop.

This year, none of my floor predictions have been tested because gold has been an absolute monster, up 60%. So, hopefully, my current floor predictions will not be retested. Those floors are as follows: Gold at $3600, silver at $44, and HUI 510. Those levels would be nasty. Gold down 14%. Silver down 20%. HUI down 25%. Note that the key is gold, which will dictate what happens to silver and the HUI. I’m hoping that perhaps $3800 or $3700 will hold. Am I begging? Stay tuned.