Friday Recap (11/15/2024)
AU: $2561 ($2683 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $30.18 (31.25)
HUI: 285 (311)
DXY: 106.7 (104.8)
S&P: 5870 (5995)
10-Yr: 4.4% (4.3%)
Oil: $67 (70)
Gold, silver, and the miners continued their correction from the Trump victory. Gold dropped $120 and the HUI dropped to 285 this week. Newmont crashed from $58 (its October high) to $40, or 31%. I think that $40 is close to the cycle bottom for Newmont, and this correction in the HUI is just about over. Gold should begin to bounce soon, although I don't think it will trend back to $2900, or the HUI back to 350. Gold and the miners are likely stuck in a trading range until the stock market crashes.
As I have said, the most important data point is the S&P 500. The bull market in the gold/silver miners will not begin until that index rolls over. When it does roll over, expect the final rug-pull for gold and the miners. I expect the HUI to bottom out around 265 once the S&P crashes. That puts the gold around $2350 to $2400. When will this happen? My guess is 3 to 9 months. The economy feels like a house of cards to me, ready to fall on its face. There are simply too many problems for Trump to solve in a short period of time. In fact, I expect him to come into office feeling like an economic mess has been dropped on his lap. His honeymoon won't begin in January. It has already begun and will end before he gets in office.
Today, on the CNBC Halftime show, Jenny Harrington said that chaos is coming. She is right. Trump is going to have to deal with one financial crisis after another. It might begin mildly in January/February, but I expect the chaos to pick up steam throughout the year. Inflation and the debt bubble haven't caused any serious damage yet, but they will soon. Once they do, the fear trade will begin, and gold will have the wind at its back. Only then do we get $3000 gold, $35 silver, and 350 HUI (the breakout in gold/silver miners). I'm hoping we see it before June, but we are in wait mode once again. Until we get there, accumulate cheap gold/silver miners. This is likely your last chance.
