Friday Recap (11/14/2025)
AU: $4080 ($3999 - Last Week) - - (Jan 1st $2623 = 55% YTD)
AG: $50.47 (48.17) - - (Jan 1st $28.97 = 74% YTD)
HUI: 615 (572) - - (Jan 1st 289 = 112% YTD)
DXY: 99.2 (99.5)
S&P: 6734 (6728) - - (Jan 1st 5881 = 14% YTD)
10-Yr: 4.15% (4.01%)
Oil: $60 (60)
The biggest news this week was the government restart, which allowed the S&P 500 to close in the green for the week. There have been several 1%+ down days in the last two weeks, especially for the NASDAQ. However, the government restart, and expected renewed government spending, have given the stock market a reprieve. I’m not sure how much longer this stock market can remain close to 7000. Bad economic news seems to be increasing, such as 150,000 layoff announcements in October, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence number at 50.
The labor market is clearly struggling. This is not a good time to look for a job, and it’s getting worse. Another rate cut by the Fed, plus a $2,000 stimy, is not going to fix that problem. There are no green shoots in the economy other than data center build-outs. Housing, auto sales, and retail all seem to be struggling. This is why Trump wants to roll out 50-year mortgages and 15-year car loans.
The economy is a train wreck in progress, and there will be no kicking the can with a stimy. We are heading into a recession. Katy, bar the door, this is not going to be pretty. I’m calling this the Humpty Dumpty crash, because there will be no putting it back together. So, I’m expecting an S&P crash soon. A big one. Down more than 40%. A 40% correction is 4,000 on the S&P. We’re going a bit lower than that. It won’t happen all at once, but over several months. But it should begin soon.
It’s all about the S&P 500, the 500 largest publicly traded US corporations. The heart of the economy. Gold will get dragged down, but I expect it to bounce at around $3700. If we get lucky and the S&P can remain above 6700, then gold could rally a bit before the coming crash. I’m hoping $3800 gold will hold, but I think I’m begging. The HUI is at 615. Hopefully, it can get above 650 before the crash happens. The higher it is before the crash, the higher the bounce will begin. I expect 500 on the HUI to hold, and I’m hoping we don’t get anywhere close to that level, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Gold, silver, and the HUI can be extremely volatile. I’m expecting $42 to $43 silver to be the next cycle low. Recently, my cycle low forecasts have not been retested. Let’s hope that continues.
Once the S&P crash event is out of the way, gold/silver/miners should be off to the races. However, it isn’t impossible for gold to fade this crash and take off from here. I don’t expect that, but this will be an epic event (the S&P crash), and gold will be the ultimate winner. Gold has been leading this year for a reason, and it might decide to keep winning and fade this coming crash. Probably not!
