Friday Recap (11/1/2024)
AU: $2735 ($2744 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $32.42 (33.63)
HUI: 317 (331)
DXY: 104 (104)
S&P: 5728 (5810)
10-Yr: 4.39% (4.2%)
Oil: $69 ($71)
The stock market was down a bit this week and failed to hold 5800 heading into the election. Gold was flat, down only $9, after being up $100 for the month. Silver got smacked, down more than $1 on the week. The HUI got whacked (down 10% from last week's high of 354) on Newmont's poor Qtr, with costs up $100 from the previous Qtr. Newmont crashed from $58 last week to $45 today. Ouch. But Newmont will come back strong. My target for Newmont is above $150, and I think it is going to $200 (at $4,000 gold).
The 10-Yr bond closed up today at 4.39%. Wow, who expected that after the Fed cut 50 bps, and will cut another 25 bps next week? What are bond investors thinking? And why is the dollar at 104? Wasn't it supposed to come down when the rate cuts began? The economy is a mess, but Wall Street (and the cable business shows) want to convince us it is strong. The NFP (non-farm payroll) report has been averaging about 150K monthly jobs for the year. Today, October came in at 12K new jobs. Oops. Yet, the stock market was up for the day. Another clown world outcome from Wall Street.
Manufacturing is supposed to be in growth mode because of the subsidized green energy bill and AI. However, manufacturing jobs had the worst print this year, with a loss of 46K jobs. The NFP is a joke, with 368,000 jobs created from the birth/death model in October. Even with those fantasy jobs added, the private sector lost 28,000 jobs. Once again, all job growth was government jobs paid for with borrowed money.
All I hear on the cable business shows is that the economy is strong, and the consumer is strong. This spiel is laughable. Name a strong sector, and then show me the earnings of all the companies in that sector. Sure, a few will be doing okay, but the rest are likely struggling. When you hear the economy is strong, that is code for GDP is positive, and the stock market has not crashed. But guess what? Without a $2T budget deficit (which is included in GDP), those two data points would be ugly. And how much longer can we print GDP growth before the debt bubble bites us? Perhaps that's why gold is near an ATH, and the 10-Yr bond is at 4.39%?
I haven't mentioned the election. When Harris wins next week, the markets will begin to crash. Why do I think she will win? The same reason Biden won. It's not who votes; it's who counts the votes. All you need to know is what has changed to ensure that elections are honest and accurate since 2020. Hint: nothing. 15 states don't even require an ID to vote. If I thought we could audit the results, and ensure that each vote was valid, then I would expect Trump to win (based on the polls). Note that I am not registered to vote, and I am neutral.
