Friday Recap (10/3/2025)

AU: $3883 ($3758 - Last Week) -- (Jan 1st $2623 = 48% YTD)

AG: $47.88 (45.99) -- (Jan 1st $28.97 = 65% YTD)

HUI: 620 (604) -- (Jan 1st 289 =114% YTD)

DXY: 97.4 (98.1)

S&P: 6715 (6643)

10-Yr: 4.12% (4.17%)

Oil: $60 (65)

Another strong week for the S&P 500, gold, silver, and the gold/silver miners. The S&P closed at another weekly ATH. Gold was happy to come along for the ride, up another $100, with silver up almost $2. Gold and silver returns are so stunning that we need to begin tracking their Y-T-D numbers. Gold up 48% YTD. Silver up 65% YTD. HUI up 114% YTD. Stunning numbers.

I don’t think gold and silver will correct until the S&P finally peaks and heads lower. That’s coming. The economy is much weaker than the stock market wants us to believe. You can’t have a strong economy when half the nation can’t pay their bills, the housing market in decline, the auto market struggling, and most of retail struggling. Plus, the labor market is starting to break. However, the biggest takeaway is that the stock market is extremely overvalued and a massive bubble is ready to pop.

With the HUI up 114% to 620, I don’t think we have to worry about a severe correction. This is not a short-term burst that is going to roll over and die. Why not? Because gold wants to go higher, and will. Yes, we will correct at some point, but it won’t be severe. My guess is the HUI will drop 20% to 25%, so my target would be around 500, perhaps a bit lower. We might get lucky, and the drop won’t be that harsh. You might be thinking that a 25% correction is severe. It’s not. In 2008, my portfolio crashed 70% (it recovered in 2009, and I was up 100% by 2011). I don’t expect anything like that this time because gold will get a bid at some point. I doubt gold will drop more than 12%, and it won’t stay down very long. Perhaps 4-8 weeks.

The best is yet to come for gold, silver, and the miners. What we are waiting for is rotation out of the S&P 500 and into miners. We don’t need much rotation because the miners are a tiny percentage in dollar terms, especially the silver miners, which are a blip in size. The HUI ripped from 2002 to 2007, and 2009 to 2011 (after the last two recessions). I think we will see history rhyme. Once the recession arrives, the miners are going to blast off.