Friday Recap (10/25/2024)

AU: $2744 ($2720 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $33.63 (33.67)
HUI: 331 (344)
DXY: 104 (103)
S&P: 5810 (5864)
10-Yr: 4.2% (4.0%)
Oil: $71 ($69)

Gold was up $24 for the week. Silver was flat (after last week's breakout). The miners (HUI) were down 13 points, although Newmont impacted this index with its big miss on costs (AISC up $100 to $1600). The HUI has been my bellwether, but Newmont makes up 14% of that index, so it has been impacted until Newmont gets its cost back under control (you don't want a laggard to be 14% of an index).

The S&P 500 was down a bit, which I expected heading into the election. I'm surprised it has been so strong. We have had very little volatility in September and October. What's going on? Is this the calm before the storm in November? We're going to find out in two weeks. The dollar was up, and the 10-year bond was up. They should both be down after the Fed lowered rates and said they will continue lowering rates. So, those are red flags heading into November uncertainty.

One thing is clear, a breakout in silver above $35 and a breakout in the miners before the election isn't going to happen. Many thought the silver breakout above $33 was going to lead to a quick move above $35. I would have agreed if the election wasn't two weeks away. The markets are likely to pause and wait for the election outcome. I still think Harris wins (because of cheating), and the 15-year bull market finally comes to an end. By the end of November, I expect to be in a completely new environment for the economy and stock market, and it won't be a pretty picture.

This is the first month in 2024 that I did not buy a stock. I expect November to be volatile, with a lot of downward price action. Fortunately, gold wants to go higher and is likely to only drop 10% in November, which is a mild correction. I expect gold to bounce before the end of November and put in its cycle low for the year. I think that will be either $2350 or $2400. Silver will retest $30, but I doubt it will hold, so perhaps a $27 handle. The HUI should hold around 275. Best guess. Hold on to your hats, November is going to be wild.