Friday Recap (10/18/2024)
AU: $2720 ($2656 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $33.67 (31.50)
HUI: 344 (319)
DXY: 103 (102)
S&P: 5864 (5815)
10-Yr: 4.0% (4.0%)
Oil: $69 ($75)
Gold/silver/miners all had a big week. Many of you probably think this is it, and we are off to the races. Gold above $2700 is a strong sign. I have said that gold is leading and wants to go higher and that all we have to worry about is a mild correction of around 10%. I still think that is the case. There is a chance that it only corrects 5% or less. Let's hope for that outcome. But gold is the most important story here. Gold has been telling us it wants to go higher for a reason. That reason is not a good one. Gold smells trouble. Conversely, the stock market is clearly overvalued and wants to roll over at some point. Thus, they want to go in opposite directions.
Silver and the miners clearly caught a bid this week and decided it was time to play catch-up with gold. You are not going to want to hear this, but both of these still have some climbing to do, and neither have broken out yet IMO. We heed silver above $35 and the HUI above 350. However, they are both close, so we can remain excited until these levels are exceeded (sometime in the next few weeks or months). Once silver is firmly above $35, then it will likely run to $65 without a significant pause. It will rip to $50 and keep going, is my guess. When silver is ripping, so will the HUI.
It might not be easy for silver to get above $35 and the HUI above 350 (we need both outcomes). If Trump wins, then the melt-up in everything will likely continue, but if he loses (my expectation), the stock market will crash, and the bull market on Wall St will end. Plus, this election is so huge (neither side will be happy with the outcome) that we have a lot of uncertainty leading to November 5th. Usually, markets become quiet when you are near a big event. For this reason, I do not expect the melt-up in gold/silver/miners (and the S&P) to continue leading up to the election. So, expect a pause or a decline leading up to the election, and then the election outcome to have a huge impact on where we go next.
Hi Don. Is the Guanajuato Silver 8M financing announcement yesterday just more dilution in disguise? Or can we see this is positive since Sprott forked out 3M on this? The stock stalled yesterday even with the explosion in silver price, given this news I gather. Do you see this stock performing in the near term if silver continues to head north? Or can we expect it to flatline for a while. Any thoughts would be appreciated. If not, I understand not being able to answer everything.