Current Economic Scorecard (4/13/2026)

The business cable shows like to bring on guests (talking heads) who say good things about the economy. Could this be why nearly all we hear are positive comments?

It should be noted that nearly all of these guests work for a company that benefits from a positive economic outlook. And conversely, is impacted negatively from a weak economic outlook.

The talking heads really only have two good arguments left. Everything else has become a stretch.

I decided to brainstorm what is really happening with today’s economy. Here is what I wrote down.

Economic Positives

1) Earnings remain strong at double-digit levels (my counterargument is that if you strip out the MAG7, they are not so strong).

2) The stock market has been resilient (my counterargument is that the stock market is a terrible indicator of future performance).

Economic Negatives

1) Debt Bubble. This has led to fiscal dominance and a $2T deficit and $1T interest payments.

2) Fragile US Government bond market. Foreign buyers have dried up.

3) Geopolitics. The Ukraine and Iran wars have created global instability and uncertainty. The BRICS+ nations are creating an alternative to the SWIFT system for international payments.

4) Tariffs. These are essentially taxes paid by consumers.

5) Inflation. The cost-of-living impact from inflation has not subsided. Plus, tariffs and oil prices are currently pushing inflation higher.

6) Overvalued Stock Market. With a forward PE around 22 and a Buffett Indicator over 200%, the stock market is due for a crash. Dave Collum thinks it is overvalued by 200%, and that it will revert to its mean.

7) De-dollarization. Countries are swapping their dollar reserves for gold. Plus, we are seeing more trade in non-dollar currencies.

8) Employment. This clearly has weakened over the past 12 months. It now takes about 6-months to replace a job. Normally, that number is 3-months.

9) Housing. The cost for a new or used house is around $450K. Housing affordability is at historic levels. Inventory levels are rising rapidly, and a crisis is emerging.

10) Autos-Trucks. At current interest rates, the average auto-loan is around 8%. The combination of tariffs and high interest rates makes autos-trucks unaffordable.

11) ISM Data. The ISM data for manufacturing and services has been weak for years. It does not appear to be improving.

12) Office Vacancies. Since COVID, the vacancy rate for commercial real estate has been at crisis levels and does not appear to be improving.

13) Banks. The balance sheets of large banks have been a mess after interest rates rose. Delinquency rates for credit cards and commercial real estate are rising. Bankruptcies are rising.

14) Private Credit. This is a potential crisis, with several bankruptcies and gated funds.

15) AI. It has been a job killer. Wal-Mart announced it would soon be reducing jobs due to AI efficiencies. Law firms no longer need as many lawyers. That’s just one example.

16) Demographics. Baby boomers are retiring in droves each month. This reduces consumer spending and taxable income.

17) Healthcare Costs. The current inflation rate for healthcare is 8%. This is squeezing discretionary spending.

18) Political Bifurcation. Washington has become ineffective with ongoing gridlock. Both parties no longer hold the same values. This is only getting worse.

19) College Costs. Like housing, it has an affordability problem. Colleges have become extremely expensive.

20) GDP Slowing. GDP for Q1 is projected to be sub 2%. Ironically, government spending is counted as GDP when $2T is borrowed. If you subtract this $2T, then we are in a recession.

21) Retail/Restaurant Sales. We continue to see national chains go bankrupt as the consumer remains constrained. Which company goes bankrupt next?

22) Consumer Confidence. The UOM (University of Michigan) consumer confidence number is currently at an all-time low. Why? Because the consumer can’t pay its bills.

23) Trains/Trucking Volume. The volume is at recessionary levels for both.

24) Apartment Rent. Rents are dropping nationally. Why? Consumers are broke.

25) A Recession is overdue. The last recession ended in Q2 2009. Some say we had a recession in 2020, but that was the COVID crisis and was not a true recession, where you have an extended period of lost jobs and a moribund stock market.