3/22/2024: Friday Recap

I normally only post my Friday Recaps on X (Twitter), but this was an important one, so I’ll share it here.

AU: $2164 ($2155 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $24.63 ($25.19)
HUI: 230 (232)
DXY: 104.1 (103.4)
S&P: 5234 (5111)
10-Yr: 4.2% (4.3%)
Oil: $80 ($81)

Last week, the TA guys were all saying gold had broken out. I said, nope, we still need confirmation. Gold did manage to rise $10 this week, but silver went down, and the HUI went down. How can you have a gold breakout, and silver and the miners go down? I'm sure they will say to be patient and that the breakout is unfolding. Fine, but you still need much better confirmation than this. Remember, we have been in a 3+ year correction in gold, silver, and the miners since August 2020. Where was the HUI in August 2020? 360. Where is it today? 230. And you want to call this a breakout? The correction is over?

The chart below (monthly Gold and HUI) says it all. Focus on 2001 to 2003 (that was the trigger we need for gold, silver, and the miners to all run together for an extended period). What happened? Uncertainty was raging from the crash of the dot-com bubble, and then 9-11 struck. Gold, silver, and the miners all started trending up (running!), and the stock market was trending down. That is what we need. That is called a risk-off trade or a fear trade. It's coming, but it's not here yet.

What's happening today is the opposite of what we need, and the HUI is the tell. It's clearly not excited. A 230 HUI is pathetic. And silver is the second factor that is telling us we are still in wait mode. She will be the tell when the miners begin to run. 

I'm extremely bearish on the economy and think a recession is coming. Perhaps I'm early, but I can sense that it is coming. That means the stock market is way overvalued and is going to crash. Gold is also telling us a story, and I think gold is telling us the truth. Gold is leading here for a good reason, but the stock market is lying (this is a bubble).

While gold might be leading for a good reason, it will still get pulled down when the selling begins on Wall Street. The question is, how hard will it be pulled down? I still think $1900 will get retested, but I'm becoming more confident that it will hold. I doubt $1800 gets retested or $21 silver. So, the bottoms appear to be in. The PA (price action) in many mining stocks also indicate the lows are in: 42 cents on Avino, $2.10 on Coeur, and $1.50 on Endeavour, seem to be tells to me. So, we are close. But something is going to break soon. Get ready.