Friday Recap (9/27/2024)
AU: $2653 ($2620 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $31.61 (31.10)
HUI: 326 (328)
DXY: 100 (101)
S&P: 5738 (5702)
10-Yr: 3.7% (3.7%)
Oil: $68 ($71)
The story remains the US stock market, which hit new ATH's this week. Gold has been tagging along, and also hit another ATH. I read that the S&P has hit an ATH over 30 times this year, and gold has hit an ATH over 15 times. They have correlated 1 to 1 since Q1. Ironically, both silver and the miners (HUI) have struggled to break out. In fact, both remain in a correction. Silver reached a cycle high of $32.68 in May, and hasn't been able to get above that level. The HUI had a cycle high of 365 in 2020, and hasn't come close to that level.
As I have said, we do not have a breakout yet in the miners. Newmont did get to $55 this week (back to $53.90 today), but the HUI couldn't get to 350. I think we need $35 silver and 350 HUI to resume the bull market in the miners. These two data points are red flags that a correction is coming to Wall St. I don't think we get smooth sailing from now until January. Sometime in Q4, I expect a rug-pull in everything except the dollar (DXY) and US bonds. That rug-pull will likely be 20% in stocks and 10% in gold.
The election is now about a month away. When Harris wins (I'm not voting for her), the markets are going to convulse. I do not see a scenario where Harris wins and the markets react positively. For this reason, I expect November to be wild. Moreover, I expect the markets to anticipate this outcome and begin heading lower in the second half of October. I expect the S&P to be under 5500 on election day. Gold and silver will also come back down in October and follow the S&P.
I'm uber-bullish for gold and silver for December after the November convulsion in the markets. I expect gold and silver to end the year higher than they are now, with the HUI ripping to 400. The one wild card for gold and silver is the BRICS meeting in October. I expect it to be a nothing-burger, but there is a chance they could announce a gold-backed crypto token backed by gold. That would rip gold upward and generate breakouts in silver and the miners. One could hope.