AU: $2577 ($2497 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $30.70 (27.97)
HUI: 328 (293)
DXY: 101 (101)
S&P: 5626 (5408)
10-Yr: 3.6% (3.7%)
Oil: $69 ($68)
No Mid-Week post this week. I was at the Beaver Creek Mining conference. I'll post my highlights tomorrow on my X Community, Substack, and the GSD Forum. A couple of stocks were stunning (30+ bagger potential). I'm also going to post my favorite 10+ baggers (about 7 stocks).
This week was exciting, but we didn't quite break out. We still need silver to confirm and the HUI to get an inch higher. Gold has been broken out since March, but silver has been in a correction all summer. And the miners have refused to breakout without silver joining the party. I think this lack of confirmation should get our attention. I'm sure many people were buying miners this week thinking we are off to the races. Perhaps they are right, but history should give us pause.
Historically, when the stock market crashes, gold and the miners go down as well. I think we have to still expect that outcome in Q4. While it is awesome to see the HUI jump from 293 to 328 in a week, and gold to reach another ATH, as I just said, the miners and silver are still lagging. Once silver reaches $35, we likely will finally be able to break out the champagne. Could that happen in September? Perhaps, but I still think this could be head fake and we go lower for a month or two. I'll raise my target for an HUI cycle low a bit to 255 to 270, but not much! And my new silver target cycle low is now $25 to $27. A smidge higher.
I would like to be wrong and these cycle lows will not be touched for the rest of the year. However, I remain extremely bearish on the economy. I'm in the camp that the only thing holding up the economy and the stock market is air. Once big puff of bad news and down we go. I think the S&P 500 will crash over 20% by year-end. I still say that the S&P is the only number that matters. It went up this week from 5408 to 5626, and gold followed. That's the story! We need to see where gold lands (the coming cycle low) when the S&P crashes in Q4.
As I have said, gold has been the real leader in 2024 and not the S&P. Gold is telling the truth and the stock market is the poser. Gold will be the last man standing. It's possible that gold continues to go higher even if the stock market crashes, but that would be historic and not likely. If silver gets above $35 and the HUI above 350 before the stock market crashes, that would imply that any correction in gold will be tiny and short-lived, perhaps only a 5% correction. One can hope, but that feels more like begging.
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Thanks Don. Looking forward to see ing any updates you have on your list to 30+ 10+ baggers. I am a member on your GSD site by the way. Fantastic site and service by the way!
Thank you Don
very informative, helpful and interesting to say the least,